Asian Nations League: Vietnam ranks 17th in AFC, on the edge of the 18-team Tier 1

On October 6, at the Asian Football Confederation headquarters in Kuala Lumpur, a document on a new competition format will be presented to representatives of the member federations. I read that description three times in one evening and paused longest at a short line: Tier 1 consists of 18 national teams. Vietnam currently sits 17th in Asia and 99th in the world on the FIFA ranking. Seventeen out of eighteen. One poor run of results over the next two years is enough to push that position outside the boundary of the elite group.

I have followed Asian football long enough to know that format changes rarely make an immediate noise. They are quieter than a 90th-minute goal, but their weight lasts a decade. This is the kind of story that forces me to rewatch footage, check every data point, and cross-reference every source — a habit I carried from Kazan in 2026, when I mispronounced a Japanese player's name twice outside the mixed zone. The lesson from the 2026 World Cup is simple: the ears always go before the pen.

The AFC calls this proposal the biggest change to Asia's national-team competition system. Its core is an Asian Nations League held every two years, split into three tiers: Tier 1 and Tier 2 with 18 teams each, and Tier 3 with 11 teams across three groups. The competition is integrated directly into World Cup and Asian Cup qualifying, rather than existing as a separate event. Matches are played home and away. The trial phase runs around 2028–2029, and if favourable, the competition officially launches from 2030.

The original source cited by Vietnamese media is ESPN, while the format details come from the AFC itself. The domestic article's author, Xuan Binh, adds commentary and clearly labels it as personal opinion. That separation deserves credit, because it tells readers what is a fact and what is an inference.

There is a reason the AFC chose the integrated option. A standalone Nations League was previously rejected by the AFC because of limited international match days and high organisational costs. Attaching it to World Cup and Asian Cup qualifying makes use of the FIFA windows that already exist, turning low-value friendlies into matches with points and consequences. To make room, the AFC plans to push the Asian Cup from 2031 to 2032. That is a scheduling intervention at continental level, and it will ripple into club competitions too.

Another point needs to be stated clearly: the AFC has decided to drop geographic regional grouping. The stated reason is the imbalance in team numbers and competitiveness between regions.

The crux lies in the tiering, and the tiering depends on both the ranking and results from the transition phase. The AFC will use results from the 2028–2029 period to help set the tiers for the 2030 launch. Those two years become a combined season, where every match carries consequences beyond itself.

For Vietnam, this structure is asymmetric. In Tier 1, the top six teams earn direct World Cup places, but each cycle the team must play 12 home-and-away matches, meaning six at home and six away, against opponents such as Japan, Iran, South Korea, Australia and Saudi Arabia. In Tier 2, the Asian Cup door widens with six places, while the World Cup path narrows considerably. One national team, two different tiers, two different fates across several years.

The top eight teams also enter a knockout round to determine the Nations League champion. That is a second incentive, independent of World Cup qualification, to fight for a place in Tier 1. The promotion, relegation and play-off mechanisms will be refined during the trial phase, meaning instability at the bottom of each tier remains fairly high.

What caught my attention most in the whole proposal is the removal of regional grouping. Previously, a team like Vietnam usually enjoyed an advantage in accumulating points against familiar Southeast Asian opponents. Dropping geographic zones means Vietnam loses its familiar source of steady points, while also losing the ceiling on what the team can reach. Without Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines as stepping stones, every match must be measured by results against opponents from outside the region.

Based on my experience following matches, Vietnam's national team has usually performed best against regional peers of similar level and struggled when facing Asia's leading group in open play. A calendar that replaces winnable matches with fixtures against top-tier opponents will put the deep-block and counter-attacking model under constant stress. Teams that press high, are physically strong and have squad depth will attack exactly that weakness.

This is where squad depth becomes a matter of survival. A 12-match cycle against top opponents demands rotation, a wider player pool and strict fitness management — different from the habit of fielding the strongest XI in every window. Teams with deep benches and strong physical foundations will benefit, while thin squads will suffer.

From the federation's perspective, a biennial competition with a home-and-away format raises a cost question. If Vietnam is in Tier 1, the team will play six home matches per cycle, bringing both ticketing revenue and organisational costs up. The Vietnam Football Federation will have to balance using home matches as a revenue source against ensuring organisational quality at continental standard.

The current ranking can shift. The 2026 World Cup qualifying round and friendlies across 2026–2027 will directly affect Vietnam's position. If the team slips to around 19th–22nd in Asia, the scenario of launching in Tier 2 becomes more realistic. A 12-match Tier 1 cycle, combined with club fixtures and youth tournaments, raises injury and overload risks. Southeast Asian national teams usually have a narrower player pool than Japan or South Korea, so rotation becomes a mandatory skill.

The 2028–2029 trial also has to test the feasibility of the whole system: the tiering method, the draw by seeding pots built by algorithm, and how play-off places are handled. The AFC retains considerable control over matchups, a governance detail worth tracking. If everything goes to plan, the competition will become the backbone of Asian national-team football for decades.

There is one thing spreadsheets cannot measure. I went to Euro 2026 with a pen and came back with a stadium in my heart. Format changes like this will be felt by fans before they are analysed: through ticket prices, through broadcast times, through a familiar match disappearing from the calendar. In 2026, the stands fell silent, but tweets clapped in turn — and it was in that silence that I understood the fan community always finds a way to stay with its team.

The value of the AFF Cup may also shift. As the Asian calendar thickens and broadcast slots concentrate more on AFC competitions, the regional stage gradually loses its status as Vietnamese football's main shop window. For fans, that means a Southeast Asian title may no longer be viewed as the highest measure.

There are three readings I consider inaccurate about this proposal. The common one holds that Vietnam will get more matches against strong teams, so this is an opportunity. That is partly true, but it overlooks the bigger risk: tier placement. Vietnam sits right on the edge of Tier 1 at 17th in Asia, while the cut is 18 teams. A poor transition phase could lock the team into Tier 2 for a full cycle, triggering a hard-to-reverse spiral: fewer top-level matches, slower development, harder to climb back.

Another reading treats the new format as a done deal. In reality, the document still needs member-federation review. The whole analytical framework only holds if the proposal is approved, and smaller federations may object out of fear of being pushed into Tier 3 permanently with fewer meaningful matches.

A third reading says dropping regional grouping is fair. In principle, it removes the imbalance in team numbers between zones. For Vietnam, it takes away the advantage of accumulating points against Southeast Asian opponents — an advantage that nurtured the image of a strong regional team. When the yardstick shifts to continental scope, AFF Cup achievements risk being revalued.

Over the next six months, Vietnamese fans will likely hear a lot about October 6 and about 2028–2029. I do not wish for a hasty conclusion. What I wish for is a calmer way of following this: each match in the transition phase is no longer a friendly, but a brick building the team's position for the next decade. The drumbeat does not come from the referee, but from the breath of the fans — and this time, that breath needs more patience than any cheer.